Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 97767.318212 103047.716204 108323.116260 113985.475521 119887.544176 125854.526305 132339.503064
2025-08-31 88253.113367 96272.111145 104504.060690 113575.603600 123280.979050 133342.312980 144550.245232
2025-09-07 82717.570991 92706.917185 103181.732383 114962.659395 127821.074174 141407.103552 156824.582501
2025-09-14 78211.605910 89675.229800 101911.887605 115909.505262 131440.987567 148108.576175 167309.715807
2025-09-21 74005.144120 86581.325991 100218.148515 116050.753534 133871.805297 153255.268989 175875.524220
2025-09-28 70444.166474 83934.339802 98771.048290 116227.535388 136128.816081 158034.139108 183890.004087
2025-10-05 68374.706674 82810.274481 98888.608688 118030.446746 140100.027400 164646.938370 193910.047642
2025-10-12 66370.300516 81621.189242 98809.100752 119497.286088 143598.942472 170664.615683 203225.226467
2025-10-19 64182.068822 80092.435509 98226.284745 120281.037248 146228.171899 175630.470330 211304.673291
2025-10-26 61845.699831 78274.497457 97203.104805 120455.004214 148068.107204 179627.887655 218229.992587
2025-11-02 59872.263076 76799.067486 96502.357926 120934.193296 150204.763667 183928.301830 225488.113070
2025-11-09 57789.579619 75104.162844 95461.088666 120934.403022 151713.090790 187449.040863 231807.562404
2025-11-16 56485.070822 74330.308377 95511.258545 122245.307482 154807.209980 192888.972655 240479.758265
2025-11-23 54530.583107 72683.747793 94440.799364 122144.798047 156164.156484 196244.103685 246675.011350
2025-11-30 53528.027565 72183.538165 94740.824170 123693.174519 159507.224492 201980.957577 255751.192758
2025-12-07 52335.529491 71394.980416 94642.628107 124715.808701 162185.234773 206910.123155 263868.725148
2025-12-14 50799.613998 70114.081940 93881.211480 124869.727637 163759.427656 210480.271719 270335.356273
2025-12-21 49365.369279 68915.300019 93179.259351 125058.314957 165345.788353 214047.883395 276798.438332
2025-12-28 48797.301332 68817.078344 93854.178167 126972.507842 169084.849694 220272.597154 286557.430415
2026-01-04 48103.495403 68525.971464 94260.323567 128529.533192 172370.762118 225947.700150 295668.501145
2026-01-11 47129.112660 67830.744558 94117.878034 129361.372919 174726.535192 230467.467580 303363.968652
2026-01-18 45924.255201 66791.279791 93495.941207 129546.006088 176237.876654 233923.447654 309739.077982
2026-01-25 44909.856682 65977.378748 93141.678939 130054.554040 178148.075542 237875.886152 316747.838735